Well yesterday after the seventh time of reading about the "Trolley Dilemma" I have decided that fear is a critical element in this whole move toward autonomous transportation. Yes it is likely that at some point a computer algorithm is going to make a decision that will result in the harm of a living thing. The literally billions of billions of living things on the planet cannot possibly all be accounted for by any machine.
So here is what I came up with to validate my fears. I started reading the best research and the best summaries of research I could get my hands on. I, unlike some folks even went across the pond to see what European experts could tell us.
Now I am a person with a disability so I must admit I pay closer attention to the data regarding that. nonetheless, here are a few of the scary facts surrounding self-driving or autonomous vehicles.
With the technology that exists right now--cars driven by drivers ---94% of accidents are caused by driver error--not mechanical failure or road failures like an earthquake or a bridge falling down etc.
So there's that.
Now on the other hand around 80% of all people with disabilities state inadequate transportation is a major barrier to work and social opportunities.
It is estimated that if current tech could be effectively deployed it could lead to as many as 2 million more people with disabilities going to work.
This new transportation option could lead to increased efficiency in medical care, namely the non cancellation of appointment and other such logistics that cost an estimated PLEASE READ CAREFULLY--19 BILLION with a B dollars annually.
Oh and in terms of missed work and medical services... well let's just say the Ruderman Foundation White Paper presents a pretty convincing arguement that our current system doesn't work, however, if a better system could be in place productivity in the workplace could rise by READ CAREFULLY AGAIN an INCREASE of around 1.3 TRILLION with A T DOLLARSS.
Now those awesome scary numbers.
Oh, and Isaid I leaped across the ocean to see what else might be out there in fact land. The latest UK study predicted that with existing technology somewhere between 17,000 and 20,000 lives could be saved by the use of autonomous vehicles. So there would have to be around 4000 runaway trolleys to cause the same amount of concern that the current "trolley dilemma" keeps shouting about.
That's with today's tech. Do you really think there will not be improvements as time goes by? Let's take a serious look at this notion. Let's start with your cell phone. Take out the cell phone you had 20 years ago---oh wait you didn't have one? Ok take out the cell phone you had 10 years ago... now compare that with what your current phone can do. If you can still find an analog TV from about 15 years ago take a look at the picture on it and then look at the one in your living room. Take a look at the alarm clock you used when you were a kid and oh now your phone probably mistaking care of that for you now.
The reality is I WANT YOU TO BE AFRAID ...AFRAID enough to find out for yourself about this new tech. You are going to hear about robots making choices about who or what to kill and you are going to hear stories about cars without drivers making silly mistakes, however you are a very capable human being and can find the facts related to this new way of looking at moving people and that more than anything will help you evaluate the fear factors.
The fear will hold us back and the facts will set us free. Have a great day--just don't walk under any ladders or break any mirrors, and avoid black cats at all costs.
No comments:
Post a Comment